Scenario Planning

"I think there is a world market for about 5 computers" TJ Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Imagen the world in 2100...
Can we plan ahead? The same amount of technological change will happen over the next 10 years that was experienced from 1943 up to now. The difference today is that we have better planning methods.

Scenario Planning stands out among the strategic planning techniques that managers use, because of it's ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. It is more than just corporate planning in that it simplifies the avalanche of future possibilities into a limited number of possible states.
The difference between Scenario Planning and other planning techniques is that it explores the joint impact of VARIOUS uncertainties. Thus the scenarios attempt to capture the richness and range of possibilities that would otherwise be ignored.

I leave you with a question, we can make provision for the known unknowns, but can we make provision for the unknown unknowns??